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IT’S difficult determining who is the weakest link in the Gillard Labor Government’s new ministry. Not that there aren’t any candidates. There are simply too many choices. There are the blow-hards and bloviators like Treasurer Wayne Swan and Infrastructure Minister Anthony Albanese. Then you have your blind ideologues like Health Minister Nicola Roxon and Industry Minister Kim Carr. Add various lightweights, such as Communications Minister Stephen Conroy, as well as the raft of those rewarded with parliamentary secretaryships for their role in assassinating the previous prime minister Kevin Rudd. Which brings us to the former PM himself, Foreign Minister Rudd, who – having been sworn in just over a fortnight ago – has already distinguished himself in the policy wonk havens of Washington and New York as a force unleashed. Not quite an unguided missile but certainly a projectile whose trajectory is known only to one person – Kevin Rudd. As PM, Rudd was a foreign policy disaster area. Quite an achievement that, considering his supporters had long spoken of Rudd’s allegedly extensive diplomatic experience and his supposedly sublime negotiating abilities. Now that Rudd has no other responsibilities, it seems likely that the disaster zone will be magnified to match his ego. In an article in The Australian three weeks ago, former senior defence official Hugh White, now head of the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre at the ANU, accused Rudd of damaging relations with several key international partners during his brief reign as prime minister. Professor White said Rudd’s performance on foreign affairs issues “was not that impressive”, that he “damaged relations with some of our most important partners” and that it would be “at least a risky call … to put him into that job”. But the man who called the Chinese leadership “rat-f … ers” at the Copenhagen climate change conference and ostentatiously refused to be seated next to a Chinese diplomat whom he knew well at a London conference is now Australia’s connection to the rest of the world. Beijing-based consultant Alistair Nicholas, in an article for the business bulletin Australia China Connections, written after Rudd was sworn in for his crucial new role, said: “Kevin Rudd had managed to turn Beijing right off Australia despite his fluent Mandarin-language skills and a 2007 pledge to build closer relations with the emerging superpower. “Indeed, on visits to China, PM Rudd appeared clueless, more like Wally Griswold touring Europe than a statesman wooing the next great superpower.” He meant Clark Griswold of National Lampoon’s Vacation movies, obviously. Although Rudd’s initial steps as Foreign Minister did make him look like a wally. Musing on how Rudd would be received as Foreign Minister by Beijing, Nicholas wrote that Rudd’s decision to make Washington his first port of call would not have helped him win friends or influence people in Zhongnanhai, the compound where China’s Central Government leaders live, work and play. “If anything it sent the message that Australia still sees its future – political, military, economic and cultural – as tied to America despite the rhetoric of the Federal Government and Australian intellectuals that our future is in Asia,” Nicholas wrote. “Choosing Washington above Beijing, Jakarta, Tokyo and Delhi represents a major miscalculation by policy-wonk Kev. If this is the Asian Century the Australian Foreign Minister is sadly looking to the past.” Nicholas said it was “possible” that Foreign Minister Rudd was delaying a visit to Beijing because he hadn’t worked out how to return to China in his new role “given the arrogance he displayed during previous visits as PM, which must have undermined whatever guanxi (relationships) he might have previously built as a young diplomat and rising politician”. Author Nicholas then continued: “Indeed, Kev was a bit of problem for Beijing from the beginning of his prime ministership. “Keen to dispatch the perception that he was the ‘Manchurian Candidate’, Rudd quickly acquired a reputation as a rabble-rouser for publicly lecturing the Chinese Government on human rights and other issues.” Always presented as a consummate expert in all matters relating to China, Rudd seemed to have forgotten that the Chinese have always preferred soft diplomacy and quiet discussions behind closed doors over traditional ALP-style table thumping. “If anything,” Nicholas wrote, “Rudd as PM had borne out the Chinese saying that ‘foreigners will always be foreigners [laowai jiu shi laowai]’ – in other words, no matter how well they speak Chinese and seem to understand the culture, the barbarians will never really understand the Chinese way of thinking and doing things.” While Rudd may find it difficult to show his face in Beijing, and will probably have to do a lot of kow-towing before he can restore his withered guanxi, Nicholas thought he would back Beijing in international forums. On past form that would seem to be likely. In the meantime, Rudd has a lot of other bridges to mend elsewhere as well. He has to repair the damage he did when he ignored Japan on his first prime ministerial visit and he has to complete a lot of fence-mending with a rightfully aggrieved India. The Indonesians, in particular, have never warmed to Rudd’s concept of a new regional association and the island nations of the Pacific were largely ignored during his prime ministership. Rudd will need to sink a lot of kava there to restore Australia’s prestige, as well as lavish lumps of foreign aid if the islanders are to again regard Australia as a trustworthy and reliable friend. But there is one group who know they can always depend on their man from Australia. As we have seen already during Rudd’s brief tenure in his new post, our foreign minister is busily buttering up the useless bureaucrats whose business it is to squander billions at the United Nations. Though there is zero evidence of any good arising from the foreign aid Australia pumps into questionable nations around the world, especially in Africa, Rudd has already boasted that, under Labor, the aid budget was now double the amount that was set aside five years ago, and by 2015 it would double again, to $8 billion. Former Keating minister Gary Johns, writing in The Australian yesterday, warned Gillard that someone should be keeping an eye on how this money is to be spent. Rudd, however, has the deal he made with Ms Gillard when she asked him to stop leaking against Labor during the election campaign, and, like every other Labor MP, he can use the fragility of the Government’s numbers to blackmail her into giving him whatever he wants, should she baulk at his demands. The postcards from Kevin will be riveting reading as the Gillard Government gradually totters into the sunset. ’S difficult determining who is the weakest link in the Gillard Labor Government’s new ministry. Not that there aren’t any candidates. There are simply too many choices. There are the blow-hards and bloviators like Treasurer Wayne Swan and Infrastructure Minister Anthony Albanese. Then you have your blind ideologues like Health Minister Nicola Roxon and Industry Minister Kim Carr. Add various lightweights, such as Communications Minister Stephen Conroy, as well as the raft of those rewarded with parliamentary secretaryships for their role in assassinating the previous prime minister Kevin Rudd. Which brings us to the former PM himself, Foreign Minister Rudd, who – having been sworn in just over a fortnight ago – has already distinguished himself in the policy wonk havens of Washington and New York as a force unleashed. Not quite an unguided missile but certainly a projectile whose trajectory is known only to one person – Kevin Rudd. As PM, Rudd was a foreign policy disaster area. Quite an achievement that, considering his supporters had long spoken of Rudd’s allegedly extensive diplomatic experience and his supposedly sublime negotiating abilities. Now that Rudd has no other responsibilities, it seems likely that the disaster zone will be magnified to match his ego. In an article in The Australian three weeks ago, former senior defence official Hugh White, now head of the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre at the ANU, accused Rudd of damaging relations with several key international partners during his brief reign as prime minister. Professor White said Rudd’s performance on foreign affairs issues “was not that impressive”, that he “damaged relations with some of our most important partners” and that it would be “at least a risky call … to put him into that job”. But the man who called the Chinese leadership “rat-f … ers” at the Copenhagen climate change conference and ostentatiously refused to be seated next to a Chinese diplomat whom he knew well at a London conference is now Australia’s connection to the rest of the world. Beijing-based consultant Alistair Nicholas, in an article for the business bulletin Australia China Connections, written after Rudd was sworn in for his crucial new role, said: “Kevin Rudd had managed to turn Beijing right off Australia despite his fluent Mandarin-language skills and a 2007 pledge to build closer relations with the emerging superpower. “Indeed, on visits to China, PM Rudd appeared clueless, more like Wally Griswold touring Europe than a statesman wooing the next great superpower.” He meant Clark Griswold of National Lampoon’s Vacation movies, obviously. Although Rudd’s initial steps as Foreign Minister did make him look like a wally. Musing on how Rudd would be received as Foreign Minister by Beijing, Nicholas wrote that Rudd’s decision to make Washington his first port of call would not have helped him win friends or influence people in Zhongnanhai, the compound where China’s Central Government leaders live, work and play. “If anything it sent the message that Australia still sees its future – political, military, economic and cultural – as tied to America despite the rhetoric of the Federal Government and Australian intellectuals that our future is in Asia,” Nicholas wrote. “Choosing Washington above Beijing, Jakarta, Tokyo and Delhi represents a major miscalculation by policy-wonk Kev. If this is the Asian Century the Australian Foreign Minister is sadly looking to the past.” Nicholas said it was “possible” that Foreign Minister Rudd was delaying a visit to Beijing because he hadn’t worked out how to return to China in his new role “given the arrogance he displayed during previous visits as PM, which must have undermined whatever guanxi (relationships) he might have previously built as a young diplomat and rising politician”. Author Nicholas then continued: “Indeed, Kev was a bit of problem for Beijing from the beginning of his prime ministership. “Keen to dispatch the perception that he was the ‘Manchurian Candidate’, Rudd quickly acquired a reputation as a rabble-rouser for publicly lecturing the Chinese Government on human rights and other issues.” Always presented as a consummate expert in all matters relating to China, Rudd seemed to have forgotten that the Chinese have always preferred soft diplomacy and quiet discussions behind closed doors over traditional ALP-style table thumping. “If anything,” Nicholas wrote, “Rudd as PM had borne out the Chinese saying that ‘foreigners will always be foreigners [laowai jiu shi laowai]’ – in other words, no matter how well they speak Chinese and seem to understand the culture, the barbarians will never really understand the Chinese way of thinking and doing things.” While Rudd may find it difficult to show his face in Beijing, and will probably have to do a lot of kow-towing before he can restore his withered guanxi, Nicholas thought he would back Beijing in international forums. On past form that would seem to be likely. In the meantime, Rudd has a lot of other bridges to mend elsewhere as well. He has to repair the damage he did when he ignored Japan on his first prime ministerial visit and he has to complete a lot of fence-mending with a rightfully aggrieved India. The Indonesians, in particular, have never warmed to Rudd’s concept of a new regional association and the island nations of the Pacific were largely ignored during his prime ministership. Rudd will need to sink a lot of kava there to restore Australia’s prestige, as well as lavish lumps of foreign aid if the islanders are to again regard Australia as a trustworthy and reliable friend. But there is one group who know they can always depend on their man from Australia. As we have seen already during Rudd’s brief tenure in his new post, our foreign minister is busily buttering up the useless bureaucrats whose business it is to squander billions at the United Nations. Though there is zero evidence of any good arising from the foreign aid Australia pumps into questionable nations around the world, especially in Africa, Rudd has already boasted that, under Labor, the aid budget was now double the amount that was set aside five years ago, and by 2015 it would double again, to $8 billion. Former Keating minister Gary Johns, writing in The Australian yesterday, warned Gillard that someone should be keeping an eye on how this money is to be spent. Rudd, however, has the deal he made with Ms Gillard when she asked him to stop leaking against Labor during the election campaign, and, like every other Labor MP, he can use the fragility of the Government’s numbers to blackmail her into giving him whatever he wants, should she baulk at his demands. The postcards from Kevin will be riveting reading as the Gillard Government gradually totters into the sunset.

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